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=========================================   Thursday, January 24, 2002
Baccarat from a Dealer's Perspective - FBMP Q&A and Feedback

Hello everyone,

The postings at the discussion forum are getting to be very interesting.  A few particular ones draw my attention posted by Matt, a Baccarat dealer who tells his experiences.  His observations can be very useful for us.  After all he deals Baccarat shoe after shoe for hours and has learned a lot from players and from players' mistakes, not mentioning that he has been very observant on the outcome of all shoes.  And indeed, he has devised his own system, that has provided him some profits, when he applied it.

Thanks to Matt who has granted me his permission to share his posting and his devised system with all of you and here it is:

"Is there a time limit???

I am a baccarat dealer and see this bad gambling decision over and over again! Kind of like betting conservatively for 3 hours using a good system and as soon as the table turns...the player loses all of their hard earned money in 15 minutes! Been there...done that!

I don't ever see anyone racing to cash out their chips at the casino why does everyone race to gamble?

Wait for the shoe to end, the next shooter, or a new dealer! What's the rush? Don't give your money away without a fight!

Remember: "It's a hard climb up the hill, and very easy to fall down!"

Over the past few days I have posted several messages in this forum. Much to my surprise...the response was unbelievable! I talked about several different topics and mostly my baccarat system. I received astronomical amounts of emails with requests for details about my system. I think I sent out over 200 copies of my system in less than 36 hours. The feedback I got was great. Suggestions, ideas, and variations to make my system better. Nothing is perfect and I am always looking for input and ideas! I want to thank everyone who participated in my quest to become a consistant winner at the baccarat table and unbeatable casinos!

However, I noticed a reoccurring theme to the emails I received. Comments like: too slow, takes too long, do you have any variations to your system so you win quicker? etc......

Why is everyone in such a rush? If you want to be in the action so badly...go play blackjack. I will be at the baccarat table when you run out of money in 10 minutes counting my chips!!! I have simply come up with a system that consistently wins small profits of 15-20 units per session and allows you to minimize your losses using good money management skills and wanted to share it with my fellow gamblers. Everyone has systems they play and sometimes they are successful and other times they are not. What works for me may not work for you! Nothing works all of the time. Everyone should know that by now. If it doesn't work today...maybe tomorrow it will. And that is what I am counting on!

I will never understand this one...

I am dealing at a no mid-shoe entry blackjack table where everyone is winning and having a great time. A player walks up and tries to jump in the middle of the shoe. I explain to them about the no mid-shoe entry and they get mad. I see them walk down to the end of the pit and throw their money at a dealer on a dead table. Why??? Now they have passed up the last seat on a hot table to go lose their money at a bad table. The dealer warns them and the player doesn't even care! Their tray is full to the top...and not because they just got a fill! Don't be this player...the one that says...

"Bad table huh...I can change that!"

Let me tell you...the dealers laugh at you when they go to break! As a dealer...I am there for two reasons. I want to see you win and I want to get tips! We don't ever want you to lose and we won't lie to you. If I am on a bad table...I will tell you! Just trust haven't got a prayer against me! If our players are losing...then so are we! No tips!!!

The key to being a successful gambler is patience. You must wait for the right time. The good shoe, the good dealer, the best opportunity for you to win money! If that means a lot of down time then so be it! In blackjack...the most respected player in my mind is the one that know when to quit. In baccarat...the player that does not play every hand. In slots...the player that...oops...their are no good slot players!!! Just kidding!!!

Anyway...I would rather win slow than lose fast. In the long run, you come out ahead of the game! Timing is everything!

My system is something like this...


I wait for one side to double or hit twice then I bet the other side for 1 unit...hoping for a jump. If I win, I wait for the next double. If I lose, I bet 2 units hoping that either banker or player does not go 4 in a row. If I win...I wait for the next double. If I lose...I wait for the next double. Banker or Player does not matter. Basically, everytime the Banker or Player goes 2 or 3 hits and then jumps ... I win 1 unit. Everytime they go 4 hits in a row or more I lose 3 units. I do not count ties as anything...I just pretend they are not there.

Back and forth patterns I am watching and waiting...usually cheering for the other players at the table. Yeah the ones guessing each hand and losing! I am not that that foolish system does not work for me! If the shoe is jumping back and forth or in a run of 15 I am just sitting there waiting to place my next bet. I am counting on 3 times as many doubles and triples than streaks of 4 or more over the course of my gaming session. The unit amount does not matter...I have done $5 units all the way up to $100 units. And if you are independently wealthy I welcome you to try for even more!

I go in 3 bet cycles. If I lose the first round of 1 and 2 units. The next round (after the next double) I increase my bets. Maybe not 4 and 8 units...for I am not big on the Martingale death method! But maybe something like $55-$90 on the 2nd round. Hoping it does not go 4 in a row two times consecutively. Then if I lose that 2nd round, the 3rd round ... maybe $50-$100. If you unfortunately lose all 3 rounds.....take a break. You are not hurt too bad and cut your losses. I would rather sit out and miss winning opportunities than give my money away. Everyone has had a bad shoe...and that is unavoidable. All you can do is cut your losses! Hopefully the next shoe works better with your system. Like I said...there is no time limit!

Sometimes I only bet 1unit then 2 units. Makes your losses less. But my theory is that even if one side goes 4 in a will not happen again without a double or triple in their to get your 1st round bet back!

I also incorporate a Banker doubles betting system in with this. If I notice the banker is hitting at least 2 or 3 times everytime...I will try to win on the 2nd banker. Always a flat bet of $25 or $50. That will help cover some of your losses in the streaky shoe. I only do that when my system is losing due to 3 or 4 consecutive runs of 4 or more! Remember...that will end too...single banker hits are not unheard of! And NO TIE BETS!!!

This is just the way I bet...there are many betting variations you can try...just the principal of streaks of 4 or more consecutively remains the same. I am convinced on my system just not my bet progression! Any suggestions would be appreciated!

Please, if you decide to try my system in a casino...start with small bets. I would feel bad if you lost a lot of money! Remember...NO GUARANTEES!!!

I am always open to comments and suggestions. You can email me anytime at

Good luck and let me know what you think!

I would also appreciate your feedback about my messages. I am just curious to know if anyone is truly getting anything from them. Thank you!"


There is a lot of positive feedback on the Flat Bet Mini Play - Baccarat system announced last week.  Not only there are quite a few questions about the system that we will cover now, but some posted their results:

"I don't want to get too excited too quickly, but this is the best system I have yet seen.   Holds up very well flat betting only in Baccarat in the tester book.  Also, please check it out for craps!  Substitute Don't Pass for Bank and Pass for Player and it performs equally well.  Don't Pass 12 takes the place of the commission in Baccarat.  Using Mickelson's tester for craps, the system is getting the same if not better results than in Baccarat.  Remember, the chop pattern is the predominant pattern in craps.  This can be verified in the Mickelson and Zumma testers.  I will report back later.  Going to the casino now.  No way to get hurt doing this, that is for sure."

"tested pages 61 through 62 in Mickelson (craps) and Shoe No. 359 in the Zumma tester (baccarat). again, I start anew at the top of each page/shoe and bet on paper until I see a win, then play the system flat betting with no stops until the end of the page/shoe. picked these pages totally at random.

here were the results

Page 61: 1 unit
Page 62: 8 units
Shoe 359: 5 units.

this is a winner. this represents another 5 hours of play at the craps table on these two pages. you MUST test this for craps as well as baccarat. will report again tomorrow."

"I tested Flat Bet Mini Play on pages 8-9 and 20-21 of Mickelson this morning. I picked the pages totally at random and played them blind (not looking ahead at the next decision). I played "paper bets" until I got my first win for each page, then started counting the bets as if in the casino. I strongly recommend this approach to starting the betting, ie, don't bet for real until you see your first win. The results were as follows:

page 8 : 1 unit
page 9: 11 units
page 20: 3 units
page 21: 26 units

Total: 41 units. This would represent approximately 8 to 9 hours at the table.

Unreal for a flat betting system.

see for yourself."

This feedback has been very encouraging for FBMP.  Looking forward for further comments.

Here are the answers to your inquiries:

Q. How would your system perform against Zumma Baccarat tester? If your
system has not been tested using Zumma - why not, since this appears to be
the standard with most knowledgeable Baccarat players?

A. I have tested the system against the Zumma book "72 Days at the
Baccarat Table" by Erick St. Germain, but not for all the 600 shoes. After
about 50 pages, I was getting very similar results to the ones I have
established at the end of the 100,000 simulated bets.

Q. Does the system somehow overcome the house advantage of about 1.15%? If
so please provide rationale. If not, how can the system be a long term

A. With the strong bet selections that are implemented in the system, you
win more than you lose. Since you are betting flat bets only, this turns
the advantage towards the player.

Q. In your newsletter, you stated that you tested the system for " few thousand shoes". How many thousand and was this all computer simulation? How
extensive have you played in casino environment? What were your results?

A. 100,000 bets would make 1,428 shoes. Those were the computer simulated
shoes. But the simulation provides the true odds of Baccarat, that is within 100,000 decisions, 44,620 of them are Player decisions, 45,860 are Banker decisions and 9,520 are Tie decisions. Those are statistical averages of course.

In live play I have used Flat Bet Min Play since November 2001.  The results were as the simulation showed. I have quit when I was 10 units ahead and left when I was 20 units down. The 20 unit loss session occurred in an average of once every 5 sessions.

Q. In all your testing/playing, what was your worst scenario?

A. Within the simulation, if one would not limit the loss to 20 units, it can drawdown to 70-80 units.

Q. A 5 to 1 factor sounds great but is precariously close to a 5 to 2 situation, which of course would place you in a substantial loss position (-10 units ). My point is that this system appears to be very risky. With only two consecutive losses, you need four consecutive wins to just break even.  Am I missing something Izak. Please explain.

A. We are not talking consecutive bets or decsions but consecutive sessions.
I define a session the number of shoes, that takes one to reach one's profit
goal of 10 units or a loss of 20 units. This can take 1 or multiple shoes.

Q.  Is this system really a LONG term winner? This is somewhat redundant
but extremely important, so please give it your best shot.

A. If you are winning 4 sessions of 10 units versus losing 1 of 20, every 5
sessions you are ahead by 40-20=20 units in average in a periodic manner.

Q. If you ignored the profit/loss goals and just played every decision for thousands of shoes, would the system win more decisions than it loses, i.e. is it the money management that makes the system a winner? Also is the bet selection unique or one that's been around awhile, such as bet the same as before last decision, etc.

A. If you keep playing continuous decisions, the system will win more than it loses, but will also break even at some points fluctuating around some pivot points. Overall profit will be slower without the money management.  Money management makes the profits surer, as you are certain to reach cumulative multiple10 units at different points, that establish your quitting points.

Q. In order to realistically average 4 winning sessions for every 1 loss, how many total sessions would one have to play if one's luck was only fair?

A. This ratio was established according to statistics. If initial luck is only fair, within 200-300 bets one should average this ratio.

Q.  In your worst scenario, how many consecutive sessions of -20 units did
you experience? Is flat bet mini play your best baccarat system?

A. I have never experienced more than 3 consecutive 20 unit lost sessions. Between Progressive Baccarat and Flat Bet Mini Play, that are 2 systems designed specifically for Baccarat, FBMP is considerably better and safer for the bankroll because it uses flat bets, although PB provides high profits.

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Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,


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