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================================================    Thursday, February 12, 2004
ITS - Intraday Trade System Performance Feedback

Hello everyone,

ITS - the Intraday Trade System by Edmond Petitjean, which has been in the market since October 27, 2003 has received numerous excellent comments on its outstanding performance from its purchasers.  It produces positive results like no other trade system in the market.  Here are some highlights from a very happy customer:

"I just finished testing ITS against the trades posted on the stock advisory www.successtradinggroup.com  (Success Trading Group) ...that's the one that received praise by others in the first thread I began on www.letstalkwinning.com titled “My first try at ITS on the FTSE100”.

I downloaded all the trades suggested for the past several years and backtested the last 5 months against ITS using the same stocks and dates they suggested...all their trades for the time frame of August 5, 2003 to January 5, 2004. The results were great for ITS !!!

1. They recommended 25 stock purchases during that 5 month time frame. ITS had 21 trades on or about the dates they recommended. ITS would have had many more trades for all the stocks recommended but I simply took the ITS recommended trade on or within a few days of their recommended trade. ITS had 19 wins and 2 losses ...

2. The www.successtradinggroup.com  recommendations had no losses, but consider this...the total gains for the entire period were only 13.31 points and the average cost of the stocks was $34.44. Thus, if you had a $10,000 bankroll you would "roughly" have made (10,000 / 34.44) x 13.31 = $3859.90 not counting commissions. Not terrible, but not enough to live on.

3. If you had done the ITS trades on ONLY the days the advisory sent out notices (of course, ITS would have generated MANY more opportunities, using the same stocks and/or all other stocks, indexes, and any other liquid instrument for that matter) I figure you would have risked roughly 10% of your bankroll each wager and won roughly 9% for each win. Compounding it all you would come out with a final bankroll of $41,622 ...now THAT'S something you could live on!

4. There's also the additional benefits of ITS in that each day with the trading advisory you would have had your entire funds tied up in 4-5 different stocks which you BOUGHT....if the market crashed...all the funds would melt away. This would not happen with ITS since it gives mixtures of BUY/SELL and you only risk 10% each day if you're conservative. Of course, you could have used an “options” method with the advisory which they suggest works well for undercapitalized traders...you would, of course, have made significantly less than the $3859.90 with the trading advisory. Oh, and ITS is perfect for undercapitalized traders...how many of us have $50,000-100,000 to tie up in stock investments?...probably not the majority of readers of this board.

5. Oh, and by the way, I think Success Trading Group will be taking a loss with Dell over the next few days. Their winning streak is still impressive, even though all the wins are VERY minimal and the capital risked and tied up is high. I wouldn’t want to have $50,000 or more tied up in stock I bought and then see the market plummet due to some future crash...I’m VERY risk adverse which is why ITS is perfect for me. The creator of ITS is also very risk adverse.

I submitted these results to Edmond (the creator if ITS) and he responded:
“It's indeed the total amount of hard dollars or euro's that you profit that counts: tying up huge amounts of money to get a small profit is not good money management.
You grasped the ideas behind my trading systems to their full extent.”

"Greetings Traders,

Here's my 4th post with the results from my 4th major test of ITS. Like I mentioned in my 3rd post on ITS, I have a program that searches over 10,000 American stocks based upon mathematical criteria I specify. I programmed in the ITS specs to search and my software returns possible BUY matches and SELL matches. In my test, I had to wait until the following day to see if the market indicated I should "pull the trigger" on each of the stocks based upon their current activity.

Each loss would be for about 1 unit, and each win would be for about .92-.94 units. Thus, a single loss does not negate 5-20 wins like in some systems...I'm afraid I can't go into greater detail without compromising Edmond's intellectual property. So, for each attack you would either win $94 or lose $100....win $940 or lose $1000....you get the idea.

Of course, in the real world I would not have bought "everything" that finally met the criteria nor would I have sold "everything" that met the criteria. This test was just a re-verification to see if the success I've been experiencing would continue to hold true by simply looking at the "entire" American stock market and applying ITS to everything.

OK, on to today’s test:

I recently received an ad in the mail that promised to make me an unbeatable Stock market trader. The company's name was VectorVest ( www.vectorvest.com ). The ad contained things like this:


Like the sea, the market's up and down movements appear to be random. But they are not. The market goes up and down in a distinct pattern of waves. This pattern is readily shown by our exclusive indicator, the VectorVest Composite. Think of the money you could make if you rode the up and down movements of the market over and over again. Herein lies the key to "Riding the Wave" with VectorVest. The price of the VectorVest Composite tells us when the market is going up, and when it is going down.

Do you know where the market is heading now?

Now You Can Time the Market With A System that Has Never Failed.

Being on the wrong side of the market is the worst thing that can happen to an investor. It doesn't have to happen to you.


Such a tempting ad !!!

The REALLY slick bit about VectorVest is that they combine fundamentals AND technicals and come up with a mathematical rating that gives an instantaneous analysis of Value, Safety, Timing, Price, Volume, Earnings, Growth Rates and many other critical parameters on over 7,600 Stocks, Industry Groups, and Business Sectors. All the math and fundamentals provide a "VST factor" and the higher the VST, the safer and more profitable the trade...or at least that's what they claim. It's quite easy to use, you just click a couple of buttons and you get a ranked list from best to good, the higher the VST - the safer and more profitable the trade...so I purchased the trial (only $9.95 to cover materials and shipping - they send you a lot of stuff - and costs $59/mo normally when you decide you want to continue to use the system) and ran it. I compared the results to the types of trades ITS would generate. Here's the results:

1-29-04 ...the top 37 suggested stocks for that day produced 7 winning trades and 26 losing trades...that's a 21% win rate. When I compared those 37 trades to ITS math, ITS would have produced of those 37 suggestions 7 possible trades - all of which would have won.

1-30-04 ...the top 40 suggested stocks for that day produced 17 winning trades and 19 losing trades...that's a 47% win rate. When I compared those 40 trades to ITS math, ITS would have produced of those 40 suggestions 2 possible trades - both of which would have won.

AND, in case your curious what how ITS would have done with the "global" search of ALL American stocks for those two days (like in my 3rd post):
1-29-04 ...A total of 66 trades were generated, 54 winners, for a 81.8% win rate
1-30-04 ...A total of 42 trades were generated, 35 winners, for an 83.3% win rate

Hmmm, to what unlucky firm shall I bring the burning light of ITS in my next installment (my 5th test) to dispel the darkness and illusion?

Happy Trading,

Greetings Traders (and Gamblers),

It's been a little while since my last post (ITS Post 4 - VectorVest) ...I've been wrapped up in an extensive test of ITS in the world of American Stock Options. When I was using ITS previously against the selections of various Stock Advisory services I began to notice a peculiar pattern. When ITS was used in conjunction with the indicators taught in TTS the most amazing thing happened...it became a system I now think of as "The Amazing Turning Point Locator".

About 5 years ago I searched and searched for the Holy Grail of systems that would identify in advance Tops, Bottoms, and Turning Points. I found several promising (and expensive) systems that looked promising but never performed as promised or expected. Turning points would be inaccurate by days and days...predicted Tops and Bottoms would be blown away by continued trends...it was most frustrating. But as I began my most extensive test yet with ITS I became amazed at how it finds turning points...it does this better than ANY system I've ever tried and I've tried a great number of "magical" systems that ALWAYS lost their "aura of magic" when finally put to the test. In all the tests that I summarize below, over 75 percent of the trades I placed turned out to be turning points. I was so amazed at first...then as I flipped between the charts of the various stocks I no longer had to scan for the day being analyzed...my eye would just automatically go to the turning point in the general area of the date range in question and, sure enough, the day of the turning point would usually wind up being the day I was analyzing.

Oh well, enough about the incredible phenomenon of locating turning points... let's look at some numbers. Let me begin by explaining the parameters of this test.
I found every US Stock that offers options and met the ITS criteria as well as the TTS "indicators". After each End-of-Day, I'd have a list of possible Stock Options to buy and possible Stock Options to sell. After trading began the following day, if the ITS intra-day criteria were met I'd initiate a trade with a corresponding instruction to close the trade if certain profit levels were reached ... if the profit levels were not reached, then the trade would be closed at the end of the trading day. I decided to make the test much more pessimistic for failures and penalized the system severely for a "loss" versus a "win". In real life, the loss would not be as severe, but I decided to really "stress test" the system. Therefore, the stress I induced was as follows ... a loss would be recorded as .75 units and a win would be recorded as .50 units. Thus, if you invest on one trade $100.00 and lost, you would lose $75. If you invest $100.00 and win, you would win $50.00. For you folks not familiar with trading, a loss does not result in losing the entire amount invested ...when you offset your trade to close, you'll recover a certain smaller amount of the originally invested monies.

At the end of my test I didn't even bother calculating the total number of units won...the positive figure would seem ludicrously optimistic...but it's undeniably real. I'll list now the trades I did for the End-of-Day results for all trading days beginning January 5, 2004 through February 5, 2004. I'll list each day traded with the initial buy and sell possibilities. Once again, a trade on the initial buy and sell possibilities only took place if the price of the stock broke through certain barriers. If the price broke the barrier then the trade was placed. If the price did not break the barrier then the trade was not placed.

Feb 5 - 43 potential buys, 5 potential sells. 1 lost, 32 won for a 96.97% win rate
Feb 4 - 32 potential buys, 6 potential sells, 3 lost, 16 won for an 84.21% win rate
Feb 3 - 39 potential buys, 19 potential sells, 0 lost, 17 won for a 100.00% win rate
Feb 2 - 43 potential buys, 6 potential sells, 2 lost, 17 won for an 88.89% win rate
Jan 30 - 66 potential buys, 5 potential sells, 4 lost, 35 won for a 90.00% win rate
Jan 29 - 94 potential buys, 1 potential sell, 8 lost, 23 won for a 74.19% win rate
Jan 28 - 4 potential buys, 35 potential sells, 0 lost, 17 won for a 100.00% win rate
Jan 27 - 5 potential buys, 33 potential sells, 1 lost, 23 won for a 95.83% win rate
Jan 26 - 42 potential buys, 4 potential sells, 0 lost, 15 won for a 100.0% win rate
Jan 23 - 10 potential buys, 34 potential sells, 4 lost, 17 won for an 80.95% win rate
Jan 22 - 3 potential buys, 67 potential sells, 2 lost, 29 won for a 93.55% win rate
Jan 21 - 16 potential buys, 15 potential sells, 1 lost, 12 won for a 92.31% win rate
Jan 20 - 7 potential buys, 29 potential sells, 0 lost, 14 won for a 100.00% win rate
Jan 16 - 9 potential buys, 43 potential sells, 2 lost, 19 won for a 90.48% win rate
Jan 15 - 21 potential buys, 24 potential sells, 1 lost, 14 won for a 93.33% win rate
Jan 14 - 16 potential buys, 19 potential sells, 2 lost, 13 won for an 86.67% win rate
Jan 13 - 30 potential buys, 30 potential sells, 3 lost, 16 won for an 84.21% win rate
Jan 12 - 18 potential buys, 18 potential sells, 1 lost, 17 won for a 94.44% win rate
Jan 9 - 7 potential buys, 67 potential sells, 4 lost, 4 won for a 50% win rate (there would have been a very slight loss this day after commissions)
Jan 8 - 11 potential buys, 55 potential sells, 3 lost, 17 won for an 85.00% win rate
Jan 7 - 19 potential buys, 31 potential sells, 0 lost, 7 won for a 100.00% win rate
Jan 6 - 9 potential buys, 30 potential sells, 2 lost, 8 won for an 80.00% win rate
Jan 5 - 7 potential buys, 12 potential sells, 1 lost, 4 won for an 80.00% win rate

A quick summary reveals for the month:
45 trades lost, 386 trades won for an 89.56% win rate

As you can see, it would be ridiculous to talk about "number of units won", not to mention "maximum draw down"...can you see any draw down? No, I thought not...

And as I mentioned in an earlier post, I don't often check back to this forum to following the different threads. I do, however, welcome any questions you may have and will do my best to answer them honestly and completely. Please email me at jferris@milgard.com  ...I will always respond promptly and courteously...and no questions are stupid questions !

Oh, and if you're wondering what test I'll do next I'll tell you. I'm going to examine www.optionsxpress.com to see how well I can automate the order process by doing their excellent online paper trade system. If that goes well then I'll send $15,000 their way and "really get cracking'" as we "yanks" say. Then I'll turn my eye to doing the same type of things with UK Stocks and US commodities...I think I'll pass on Forex...too complicated and risky for my taste.


Thank you Jeffrey for your valuable input and congratulations to Edmond for his outstanding system.  Click here to read more about ITS and place your orders for this indispensable product.

Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,


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