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Tuesday, July 15, 2008
SBSMP - the New Simple Baccarat System with the Mildest Progression
Thank you all who have shown great interest
to the new system titled: SBSMP, which stands for
the Simple Baccarat System with the Mildest Progression announced a couple
of weeks ago.
I have been overwhelmed with the quantity
of questions on the system, so I would like to share my answers in this
newsletter with an FAQ.
Q: Hi Izak:
Your new Baccarat System sounds interesting. I have some questions for you.
What if you lose your progression? How many units will you have lost total
by losing that particular progression?
In your testing, what was the biggest drawdown in number of units?
Would one play the entire shoe from beginning to end, or is their a win goal
for each shoe?
A: The progression is not a regular type you may be acquainted with.
It is not a sequence of consecutive losses. You may have up to 25 steps in
the progression with losses and wins in between.
There is no such thing as "losing" a progression. You may end up with -3
units at the end of the 25 steps or -7 or just a small negative figure.
In the testing the largest drawdown was 23 units. You can play, join and
quit the shoe anytime or play it entirely and play multiple shoes
continuously. The win target you may have is for an entire session, not just
a shoe. The play is continuous and no tracking is involved whatsoever. The
system consists of a very strong bet selection combined with the mildest of
all progressions generating lots of winning sessions.
Q: If the progression is not resolved by the end
of the shoe, does one take it to the next shoe.
A: Yes, by all means.
Q: Izak, is this system just a
variation on Cluster? The reason I ask is because
of the 'mild progression', which makes me think it could be similar to
What are the key differences between this system and Cluster, and which one
performs better, or is 'safer' to use?
A: Thank you for your interest.
SBSMP is very different than the Cluster system. Cluster did not have a mild
progression. On the contrary, it had this double up Martingale for 5 steps.
SBSMP's highest bet never exceeds 5 units and it can even take up many steps
in its very mild progression. That's why it may be "safer" to use it.
Another major difference is that in Cluster when a run is lost, one
registers minus 31 units. In SBSMP when a run is abandoned, one could be at
-3 units or -7 units or -23 units. That's why its recovery is much stronger,
as wins are also not of a grind type, but one can end up at +2, +3, +4 units
for each run.
Cluster requires tracking and finding the right opportunities before
betting. SBSMP has a very strong bet selection, particularly for Baccarat,
and is very dynamic in the sense, that one bets every hand of the shoe.
Cluster's bet selection has a very original concept, never seen before.
SBSMP's bet selection has also never been seen before, and follows 3 simple
Cluster has numerous ways of winning, and gives a lot of space for
creativity, imagination and observation for the player. SBSMP is extremely
mechanical. Two people using SBSMP will bet exactly the same manner.
Q: Do you bet on player or banker?
A: Depending on its bet selection,
you will be placing bets on Banker and on Player.
Q: Izak, You indicate the system
will win flat betting. How much per shoe? You indicate the bet selection can
not be used for other games but the progression can. Will the progression
win with other games and if so how much? Thanks.
A: Flat betting, the system wins.
It's a bit slower than using the mild progression, though. By the end of
1000 decisions, there are about 56-70 more wins than losses minus Banker win
commissions. So, the average profit per shoe becomes 3-4 units flat betting.
The progression wins on all even bet games with almost any bet selection. It
generates about 85 units profit for 1000 decisions and there is no
On your system page you show a chart for SBSMP and at one point the it seems
to drop approximately 40 units, before recuperating, is that correct?
However in this forum you talk about a max loss run of 23 units.
Am I reading something incorrectly?
A: You're reading it perfectly.
In the chart one sees a drop from +70 units to +25, as though there was a
drop of 45 units. However, this is not one run, but two or three, that may
have resulted a loss of around 12-18 units each and not consecutively. If
you look carefully, there are some winning runs between the +70 to +25.
Q: Izak, It sounds like the
progression winning 85 units per 1000 decisions in any game is about equal
to 70 units per shoe in bac considering commission. You indicated flat
betting you should have somewhere around a 6% advantage flat betting in bac
yet win about the same amount of units in any even bet game using the
progression. Flat betting with another bet selection you should be at a 1 to
2% disadvantage. How is it possible for the progression to win the same
amount with a 6% advantage vs a 2% disadvantage? Thanks.
A: That's because the progression is
so mild, that it is quasi flat betting during a few of its stages.
Q: Questions for Izak:
Have you tested this system on either of the Zumma testing books for
Baccarat? If so, what are the results? I ask because it looks like an Excel
simulation on the newsletter. The other question is have you played it
yourself? If so, how have you done?
A: I avoid Zumma testing nowadays,
as people say if the system beats the tester book, it must have been
reverse-engineered. Although I don't do that, it is possible to
reverse-engineer previously known results and adapt the system accordingly.
In any event, for my own curiosity, I ran some tests on the Zumma 600 shoes,
the 72 Days of Baccarat and it generated about 135 units for the first 1700
The resulting graph is at:
I never market anything, that I haven't
played myself and I never try to sell it if I'm not successful with it.
Q: Izak, Is it the bet selection or
progression which is the most responsible for the systems success? Did I
pick up somewhere that the selection is based on card values of the last
A: The mild progression works with
any bet selection for any even bet game. The bet selection, however, is
designed specifically for Baccarat, synchronizing itself to the odds and
proportion of Player versus Banker decisions. That's why the combination of
the two (bet selection plus the bet method) makes it very strong for
The bet selection is not based on the card values of the last hand.
Q: Me, I am curious about the
outcome after each 1000 decisions.
Izak, could you please, using the simulator included, show the profit , for
example, of 12 consecutive sets of 1000 random decisions? I want to
see an example of range of the profit that it can generate.
A: Here are the results of the 12
runs of the simulation after 1000 decisions. Results include deduction of
commissions on Banker wins:
1) Profit: 58.05
Maximum profit: 69.4
2) Profit: 35.6
Maximum profit: 73.15
3) Profit: -38.9
Maximum profit: 47.85
4) Profit: 30.2
Maximum profit: 74.65
5) Profit: 27.95
Maximum profit: 57.75
6) Profit: 39.55
Maximum profit: 39.65
7) Profit: 11.7
Maximum profit: 25.25
8) Profit: -16.05
Maximum profit: 33.65
9) Profit: 44.8
Maximum profit: 60.25
10) Profit: 101.15
Maximum profit: 101.2
11) Profit: 71.3
Maximum profit: 82
12) Profit: 73.5
Maximum profit: 77.15
Q: Were the above 12 runs flat betting or using the mild progression?
A: They were using the mild
Am I correct that your position is that the baccarat decisions with the
randomizer is reflective of real casino baccarat play and that your method
should show the same results on average under both conditions?
A: Yes, on average, similar results
should be obtained on all environments.
Thank you again for your great interest.
The system goes for
$320 and it's worth every penny. It will pay itself off within
the first day of its use and then it's open ended profits for you. You
have a full money back guarantee on it within 30 days of your purchase upon
your full satisfaction.
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Wishing you all the best,
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