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================================================    Thursday, February 26, 2004
 
More on the Successful IBS Based 10-4 Strategy

Hello everyone,

This is an addendum and follow up on the newsletter of January 29, 2004, where a successful IBS adaptation was shown. 

Ervin who has come up with this variation says:

"I play the Casinos full time now. It is all I do. IBS has made it possible. My luck may hit a rough spot but I would have to lose 50 games in a row to get set back. I have accumulated a bankroll of 2500 units, and every time I win it is gravy."

Monday I played my 100th live game. Now I am at 1 loss out of 100 games of live play.

As I have said before I do not play a 100% mechanical game.  I will alter my bet selection if I feel I need to in order to win. But I do play a nearly 100% mechanical game and I wanted to show you all what I am doing.

By the way a couple of people have been sending me emails and telling me how they are doing with the 10-4 strategy and one of them is now at 1 loss in 40 games and the other is at 1 for 53. Both of them calculate the ratio in a different way, but they get the same result.

I have tried to simplify it as much as possible. Most of the emails I have gotten have been from individuals who do not understand the idea.

It is simple really.... You want to find the point where the side you are betting on is showing less than 4 out of 10 hands. You do not want to bet on a side where it is appearing less than that. The reason is because IBS will lose unless you win at least 30% of the time.

I know that you cannot tell what is going to happen in a shoe. All I am doing is trying to judge the present not the future and make a bet based on my determinations. It seems to me that most of the time when there is a low occurrence of Banker or Player hands it in the mist of a trend and will continue to be low for just long enough to avoid a disaster.

Like I said I know you cannot predict what will happen. But 1 out of 100 tells me that the downturns come gradually and return gradually most of the time.

Andrea has won 1 in 40 or better bets until the hands decline below the ratio. He stops and only then  bets again if it climbs back up above 4 in 10. The point is what matters is knowing when the side you are betting on is below the needed number of occurrences for IBS to work.

Below is a copy of my 100 game from Monday at Argosy. I have refined what I am doing so that I only count the number of decisions when I am going to use the progression to recover my losses which I do not do the whole game.

I start out betting 1 unit then I bet 2 units. If I lose both bets then I go into the progression. I bet for chops. I play both Banker and Player.

I do not bet the first decision unless I need to bet on both to get going. If the first decision is a Player then I would bet 1 unit that the next hand will be a Banker. Just like KISS. If I get two Players in a row I will bet 2 units that the next will be a Player again. If it wins I go back to betting for the Chop. If I get 4 of the same kind in a row I do not try for same again like on two in a row I try for the Chop.

When I lose my first 2 bets in a row I start my IBS string not 1-2 but 1-1-1. I am not trying to gain one unit with IBS. I am trying to recover my losses. I normally play using the way Izak described in the thread "IBS 50 unit bankroll", but you don't have to. You can do it with any variation you like.

When I have hit the two losses before I start using IBS I will look at the hand that beat me. Is it a Player or Banker? Let's say it is a Player. I will count back 10 hands.  If Player is showing 4 or less in the last 10 hands then I will pick Banker to make my recovery.  Otherwise I will use the side that beat me.

Let me stop here. One of the biggest reasons I believe I have won so many games lately is because I will not try to recover losses a lot of times simply because I am not down and I don't need to. When I play with real money I am very much set on never risking money when I don't have to.

I think I play a great game but it is still gambling and even if I win 1000 games without a loss I will never start risking my bankroll without considering everything I have learned about the game and my present situation and making a thoughtful and careful decision to bet or not to bet.

This is the non-mechanical part of the game. The rest is almost all playing by the numbers so to speak. There maybe nothing much to the 10 - 4 counting strategy, but I don't care, because it helps me stop and consider what I am about to do. When I do the count, I know the side I am about to start betting on has not been showing enough to win using the wagering method I am about to employ, so why do it? It may change in the next series of decisions.  But you can only work with what you know, not what may or may not happen.

You see I do not accept the idea of discipline as a goal. Discipline to me is a result of confidence in a conclusion. Much like reward is the result of labor. I think people who set rules for themselves and then attempt to live by disciplining themselves to be obedient are just plain lazy. They would rather not have to find an answer that satisfies their uncertainty sufficiently and act with full faith in their conclusion, because it is more difficult than just picking a rule and following it. But that is a debate for a religious forum.

I hope this explains everything. This is the best I can do. With the example I am giving you it should be enough. I play the Casinos full time now. It is all I do. IBS has made it possible. My luck my hit a rough spot but I would have to lose 50 games in a row to get set back. I have accumulated a bankroll of 2500 units and every time I win it is gravy. The way I figure it even if by some evil turn of fate I was wiped out all I need is 50 units to start over again. I can go find a job and make that in a month no big deal.

Here is an example of how I play:

Happy Gambling!

Bc 26 -1.3 Total +28.7
Mon / Feb / 23 / 04 Argosy Casino: 1 Mini Bac. Table

Hand #/ decision / bet on P-B amount W-L / string /amount W-L/ score /

1. B
2. P P1W 1-0 +1 +1
3. B B1W 1-0 +1 +2
4. P P1W 1-0 +1 +3
5. B B1W 1-0 +1 +4
6. B P1L 1-1 -1 +3
7. P B2L 1-1-1 -2 +1 - (3 in 7 - P)
8. B P1L 1-1-1-1 -1 0
9. B P1L 1-1-1-1-1 -1 -1
10. P P1W 1-1-1-1 +1 0
11. P P4W 1-0 +4 +4
12. B B1W 1-0 +1 +5
13. P P1W 1-0 +1 +6
14. B B1W 1-0 +1 +7
15. B P1L 1-1 -1 +6
16. B B2W 1-0 +2 +8
17. P P1W 1-0 +1 +9
18. P B1L 1-1 -1 +8
19. P P2W 1-0 +2 +10
20. B B1W 1-0 +1 +11
21. P P1W 1-0 +1 +12
22. P B1L 1-1 -1 +11
23. P P2W 1-0 +2 +13
24. B B1W 1-0 +1 +14
25. P P1W 1-0 +1 +15
26. B B1W 1-0 +1 +16
27. B P1L 1-1 -1 +15
28. B B2W 1-0 +2 +17
29. P P1W 1-0 +1 +18
30. B B1W 1-0 +1 +19
31. B P1L 1-1 -1 +18
32. P B2L 1-1-1 -2 +16 - (4 in 10 - B)
33. B B1W 1-1 +1 +17
34. P B2L 1-1-1 -2 +15
35. P B1L 1-1-1-1 -1 +14
36. B B1W 1-1-1 +1 +15
37. B B3W 1-0 +3 +18 - resume
38. P P1W 1-0 +1 +19
39. B B1W 1-0 +1 +20
40. B P1L 1-1 -1 +19
41. B B2W 1-0 +2 +21
42. P P1W 1-0 +1 +22
43. P B1L 1-1 -1 +21
44. P P2W 1-0 +2 +23
45. B B1W 1-0 +1 +24
46. P P1W 1-0 +1 +25
47. P B1L 1-1 -1 +24
48. B P2L 1-1-1 -2 +22 - (5 in 10 - B)
49. B B1W 1-1 +1 +23
50. B B2W 1-0 +2 +25 - resume
51. P P1W 1-0 +1 +26
52. P B1L 1-1 -1 +25
53. P P2W 1-0 +2 +27
54. P B1L 1-1 -1 +26
55. B B2W 1-0 +2 +28
56. B P1L 1-1 -1 +27
57. P B2L 1-1-1 -2 +25 - (5 in 10 - P)
58. B P1L 1-1-1-1 -1 +24
59. P P1W 1-1-1 +1 +25
60. P P3W 1-0 +3 +28-resume
61. P P1W 1-0 +1 +29
62. P B1L 1-1 -1 +28
63. P B2L 1-1-1 -2 +26 - (7 in 10 - P)
64. B P1L 1-1-1-1 -1 +25
65. P P1W 1-1-1 +1 +27
66. B P3L 1-1-1-3 -3 +24
67. P P6W 1-0 +6 +30 - resume
68. P B1L 1-1 -1 +29
69. P P2W 1-0 +2 +31
70. P B1L 1-1 -2 +30 - End

Just a note to add. When I am in a recover mode, because I missed my first 2 bets, I count the last 10 decisions and even though I didn't write it down, I follow my count and I will stop my recovery sometimes if it gets down below 4 and wait for it to come back and sometimes I just switch to the other side.

I don't have a set rule but if I had to choose which I do most I would say I follow the count and go with the side that is showing the strongest.

Most of the shoes I play it seems that I get into IBS on average 4 times per shoe. I try my best to make the first 2 bets win and I have won some shoes without ever losing the second bet.

In the example above I did not make the last 2 recovery attempts when I was playing in the Casino. I was up a considerable amount and I saw no reason to risk it."

Thanking Ervin again for his most valuable input.

Wishing you all the best,
Until next week,
Izak

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