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Thursday, February 14, 2002 Hello everyone, Happy Valentine's Day! Thank you for your interest on the TTS (Trade Tuner System) and ROHP (Right Opportunity High Profit) systems announced last week. As one customer mentioned, ROHP has the fairest money back guarantee, as neither yourselves or we (Edmond and I) know what the results of the Hamburg SpielBank permanences will show two weeks AFTER your purchase of ROHP. So, first of all, you don't need to spend a penny to test the system. Secondly, should it fail your tests during those two weeks, your money is returned, no questions asked. You have absolutely nothing to lose, but a lot to gain when you see how the system performs. Most inquiries on ROHP were based on the number of sessions won and the bankroll required. Here is a Q and A: Q:
Edmond, A: I
understand your practical problem. Click to order. Since the TTS  Trade Tuner System is the very first trading system announced at Let's Talk Winning, it aroused a big interest. Here are the answers to some of your inquiries: Q: I would
like to learn to trade Forex, and I thought you would either have A: It makes
no difference for TTS what you trade. Q: I'm a
trader from Italy, and I'm researching a new trading system and I see your TTS in the
Letstalkwinning's site. A: You'll
love TTS because of its simplicity, low stress (remember the relaxed roulette principle)
and high yield. Q: I saw your track record and I have one question, please don't get me wrong, I'm just curious... If your system has generated so much money (509000$ are much money) why do you mind to sell the system itself? A: That's
what using my system would have produced on the sp500. Qs: Frequency
of trades? Winning Percentage? Stop Loss Amount? As: My own
trading frequency is about 1/week on options of the Amsterdam Exchange (AEX). Q: Is it a
100% mechanical method (Step 1, Step 2, etc.)? What scares you is the kind of charts where you see lots of complicated indicators, cluttered all over the screen. This is only to hide a total lack of understanding from the program designers. With TTS, you'll see a very clear screen before your eyes, with only two or three things to look at. Q: If one
were applying the method to one of the indices (SPX, OEX, DOW), how A: It depends
entirely on your time scale. Will you trade intraday, short swing trades or longer?
Let's suppose that you use daily bars. This will produce around 4 trades per
month. A: There is
no difference in trading indexes or equities or commodities with this method. If you
are only following a few indexes, it should take about 5 minutes each day to decide what
to do. A: If you
would trade for example the SP500 full contract, you could expect around 40 points profit
= US$10,000. This can of course not be guaranteed, but is reasonable. A: Support is
done via email (edmond.petitjean@skynet.be),
as this is the most convenient way. Thank you, Edmond Petitjean The Derivative Method As per your requests and as posted in the discussion forum, here is the full documentation of the Derivative Method. This method was posted in the forum within 7 sessions, was open for discussion and has given the participants lots of thoughts. We will include some of your comments also at the end of the description. The Derivative Method takes ANY betting system, analyzes it and converts it into a surely winning system. It's not anything magical. It simply provides you guidance on how to extract the winning portion of a betting system that you may have developed yourself or purchased it somewhere. So, it really adds a third dimension to a system, the first two dimensions being the betting selection and the second one the type of progression or the use of flat bets. Our ultimate goal is to have a system work for us on the long run as consistently as possible. A system wins consistently between two failure points.
Unfortunately there is a casino edge, and because of that edge, the failure points cause
you to lose more units that the units you have accumulated profits from. The
derivative method has a solution for that. People who
know calculus know about the calculation of minimum and maximum points of a curve. In
simple English terms we will refer to those points as the failure points of our system. In
mathematical terms if you have an equation of the type y=ax+b and x is our failure point,
if you find the derivative of that equation the x disappears. If our
failure points repeats right away, this is what we will refer to as level 2 equation or
y=ax**2 (square) + bx + c. This requires a double derivative where the x will again
disappear. Put that in
English, if we know where our system fails, we can start betting right after it fails.
This is like the first derivative. If we
encounter a backtoback loss, we start betting right after two consecutive failures. This
is like the second derivative. How long do
we bet for? This depends on the system's curve and the frequency of failure points. A good
simulation shows that frequency. We sample the minimum and maximum occurrences of those
events as well. Let's have a concrete example. Let's take a system, ANY system. The system
I will take as an example is the following: You bet on
2 dozens at the same time. Any betting selection of your choice: the same as the last 2,
one different than the last one and the previous one, the one that lost and the previous
one, the one that won and the previous one, two random dozens, etc., it really doesn't
matter. A betting
selection is accompanied by a progression. Take a steep one  a 3 step progression:
you bet one unit on each dozen, if you lose, you triple and bet 3 units on each dozen, if
you lose our second bet, you triple again and bet 9 units on each dozen. This ensures that
if you win within the 3 steps you will come up 1 unit ahead. If you lose all 3 bets you
are down 1+1+3+3+9+9=26 units, which will be considered as the failing point of this
system. So we start
betting and say we get the following Win/Lose sequence: L W L L W L
W W W L W W L W L L W L L W W W W L W, etc. So far we are 14 units ahead, as we had no 3
L's in a row. Suddenly, kaboom we get L L L and our 14 units become 1426 = 12 units.
This is what would happen if we would use the system from any point until the failure
point. Now let's
look at the whole series over again with more bets: L W L L W L W W W L W W L W L L W L L
W W W W L W L L L L W L L W L W W W W L W W W L W W L W L L W. We know we
have one failure point in the middle of our series and that lowers our net profit by 26
units. According
to the derivative method, we know how to identify this failure point of this particular
system: simply the appearance of 3 or more L's in the series. In simple terms the above shows that if we bet between failure points, we win consistently. In the
first level of this method, we start betting right after the appearance of 3 L's. In the
above series, we make 13 units. Had we
played the whole series with no interruptions and no waiting for failure points we would
end up with +27  26 = only 1 unit profit. This is
fine until we encounter another failing point. Now we are at a stage that we have two failure points. A sample
session is the following: L L W L W W
W L L L W L W W W L W W L W W L L L. If we play
the whole series without the derivative method, we win 4 units, then we lose 26, then we
win 8 units, then we lose 26 units again. Overall we lose. The
derivative method identifies two failure points in the above series. We also observe 8
winning runs between the two failure points. The
question is how many winning runs can we have between failure points and what is a
"safe" number that we can bet on? This is
where a simulation or the observation of real spins either in Zumma book or Hamburg
Spielbank archive comes handy. We never said winning is easy work. It takes hours of
research to reach conclusions. Let's say
we run a 10,000 bet simulation and detect that between two failure points we can have a
minimum of 3 winning runs and a maximum of 18 winning runs. So a safe
method is to bet for 3 bets right after a failure point, get 3 units profit and wait for
the next failure point (3 L's and more). Then bet another 3 bets, get another 3 units,
wait for the next failure point without betting and so on. This seems
to be good for 10,000 bets. Then we run
a 100,000 bet simulation and we observe that the minimum winning runs between two failure
points are reduced to either 1 winning bet or no winning bet, that is two consecutive
failure points back to back. So, now are
at a stage that we have run 100,000 bet simulations and we saw that there are a few back
to back losing runs. It is
possible that up to now, we may have gathered enough cumulative profit units, so at this
stage losing 26 units will still leave us ahead. However, it may also not be the case. Therefore we go into the second level of the derivative. In mathematical terms, we go into the second derivative of the curve, so the power of 2 of the x variable will vanish. In simple
terms, the second derivative looks for a consecutive backtoback loss, i.e. W L W L L L
L W L L L L L W. Note that
if we have 3 consecutive L's we lose the run, and we don't bet until the next W. Then we
start betting again. This will make sure any sequence of 3 or more L's is only 1 losing
run and not multiple. After the
W, we encounter 3 or more L's. This is what's meant with 2 consecutive losing runs. To avoid
this, the second level of the derivative looks for such a backtoback loss and we start
betting only after having encountered two consecutive losing runs. We run
another simulation of 200,000 bets or spins. This time we look for 2 consecutive losses
and the number of winning runs we have between 2 consecutive losing runs. We determine
again their minimum and maximum values. Say, they are 12 and 57 respectively. So our
betting system becomes: wait for two consecutive losing runs and bet for 12 times. Gather
12 units and wait for the next appearance of two consecutive losing runs. Then bet
again for 12 units, win them and wait for the next appearance of two consecutive losing
runs, etc. This may
take 2030 thousand bets. After all we want to beat the casino game on the long run, don't
we? Now, we run
a 500,000 bet simulation, as we
approach our final destination to win any casino game with any system on the long run. You must
have started to get a feel how "long" this long run can take. So, after half a million bet simulation, guess what we encounter: 3 backtoback losses and maybe even 4 backtoback losses: W L L L L W
L L L L L W L L L L L W ... Yes, they
may happen once or twice in half a million decisions. But who knows you won't be the one
encountering them? And we come
to the third or fourth level of the derivative method. The fourth power of the x will
disappear if you derive the function 4 times. In simple terms, within all decisions you look for 3 or 4 consecutive backtoback losses and start betting only then. It may take you a very long time to see such a situation. But when you encounter it, you go for it. You bet one unit, probably the highest allowed and you win. You have beaten the casino game and you have done so on the long run, no matter how long it took you to achieve this goal. The derivative method proves what it means to win on the long run and it does achieve it. Otherwise, if you apply a system as is, with no interruptions, and without analysis of its failure points, you will win during its winning runs, you will lose during its losing points, your profits will fluctuate up and down, unless, of course, your system has a solid built in money management strategy, which cuts your losses to a minimum and maximizes your profits. The
following few steps would summarize the Derivative Method: There were some comments at the discussion board, as one customer concluded: "I think the main
conclusion to the derivative method is this. In order to win at gambling, you need to have
the following characteristics: with which I definitely agree. I hope you find the method useful and can combine it with your systems. You can apply the method at any level. In the first level, it simply means to start betting after having encountered a failing point in your system. In the second level, you start betting after two backtoback failing points. And if you know how many backtoback losses your system can have, you have converted your system into a consistently winning one. Windows Casino has a special Valentine gift for you. Get $40 free with no deposit required. Wishing you
all the best,
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