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=============================================================   Tuesday, June 7, 2016
 
FAQ on the New Dragon Betting Baccarat System by Izak Matatya

Dear Let's Talk Winning subscribers, customers, friends,

The new system  Dragon Betting Baccarat system, announced on June 2, was received with the greatest enthusiasm.  After all there are not too many systems out there, which beats Baccarat with flat bets and have continuous profits over an indefinite number of shoes.

Only positive feedback has been received by purchasers. One customer pointed out that he made 30 units during the very first 11 bets of using the system and quit with his profits as the system instructed. 

There have been numerous questions and I'd like to share my answers with you all during this newsletter.

Q: How long does it take to play 30000 shoes?

A: A shoe takes about an hour to play. I play 2 hours per week.

The 32000 shoe (it's actually 16000 shoes, or 32000 half shoes) simulation shows what happens if one plays a bit longer.

We all want to see "long run" results, don't we?  The result is about 170,000 units!!

If we want to make 170,000 units at 10 units per hour in average, then this will be accomplished in 17,000 hours, or 1700 days playing 10 hours a day, or about 5 years.  At $10 a bet, this will make us $1.7 million, at $100 a bet, this will make us $17 million dollars.

At 2 hours' play per week, I'm contented to make $24,500 in 3 months.  How much and how long you would like to play is totally up to your availability.

Q: Could we see the results please? The mini bac bonus bet is not just 30-1, the payout works on a sliding scale. Not sure how one could program for that but they are fixed rules.

Win by 9 30-1 18,409,431,764,992 0.003683 0.110492
Win by 8 10-1 34,097,645,543,424 0.006822 0.068217
Win by 7 6-1 89,590,261,473,280 0.017924 0.107543
Win by 6 4-1 141,238,897,317,888 0.028257 0.113027
Win by 5 2-1 166,169,165,987,840 0.033244 0.066489
Win by 4 1-1 186,780,352,174,080 0.037368 0.037368
Natural win 1-1 812,685,054,124,032 0.162589 0.162589
Natural tie 0 89,325,908,267,520 0.017871 0
Loss -1 3,460,101,558,850,300 0.692242 -0.692242
Totals 4,998,398,275,503,350 1 -0.026517

A: This is not EZ Baccarat, but Dragon Bonus Baccarat.  It's a different game with different rules.  EZ Baccarat has 2 side bets only:  EZ Baccarat is a non-commission game with two side bets: Dragon 7 and Panda 8. A Dragon 7 occurs when the Banker wins with a total of 7 consisting of 3 cards and pays 40:1. A Panda 8 occurs when the Player wins with a total of 8 consisting of 3 cards and pays 25:1. EZ Baccarat tables are available in over 150 casinos and card rooms worldwide.

The system uses only one side bet the Dragon 7, which pays 40 to 1.  And that is the simulation provided for you.  Some customers were mistaken thinking that their casino provides Dragon 7 with a 30 to 1 payout. 

Q: Where can I play EZ Baccarat in Vegas?

A: The best Dragon bet casino I have played in Vegas was: Gold Coast next to Rio Resort: http://www.goldcoastcasino.com/
You can play with as low as $10 bets.

Q: Hello Izak,

I have bought several of your systems in the past. I am extremely excited about the new Dragon Baccarat system!

I am curious to know if the big drawdown periods (398) have happened in close proximity to one another in the test. Handling one of those once in a while is not a big deal but I am wondering if you see strings of them that would require multiple '400 unit' bankrolls.

Any thoughts on bankroll volatility would be appreciated. I would be open to promoting your new system to my membership and email list.

Thank You.

A: I ran the 16,000 shoe simulation more than 100 times. There was only one instance that the bankroll went to -398.

Each shoe is 80 decisions. 16,000 shoes are 16,000 X 80 = 1.28 million decisions. If I run the simulation 10 times, chances of getting a -398 is one in 12.8 million. Having said that I do not think you will require 'a few' 400 unit bankrolls, but one lifetime amount should be sufficient.  I went only to -47 units before profits started rising and never fell below that.

Q: If the largest drawdown was 398 units, but you still wound up showing an average profit of ten units per shoe, then this flat-betting system pulled off a miracle and came back to recapture those 398 units down, plus show a profit? How long did that take? Again, why don't we see that on the chart?

A: Maybe it's my fault that I indicated such a large bankroll, as this was the largest drawdown ever encountered in 1.28 milllion shoes...

I bring 80 units to the table tops.

The chart did not reflect that drawdown, because that specific sample did not have such a large one. Samples were run 100 times, reflecting a similar image every time.  The profits are so high, the drawdowns are hardly visible in those charts.

It was not a miracle, but the fact that I have discovered a mathematical advantage, the graph will go higher the longer you play regardless of any drawdown, even 400 units.

A: Izak, your system is fantastic!!  It's probably your best one ever.  How does your mathematical advantage work?  I think he odds for the Dragon to come should be around 40 to 1 to gain that advantage.

Q: That's right.  The system works extremely well, if the odds of the Dragon showing up is about 40 to 1.  Statistically we know there are 2 Dragons per shoe in average or 1 Dragon per half shoe or 40 decisions.  Here is the exact math behind it:

Under regular Baccarat rules, which include the 5% commission on all Bank wins, the expected outcome for a Bank wager is: SUM (Bank Wager) = 0.4585974(+0.95) + 0.4462466(-1) + 0.0951560(0) = -0.0105791, or roughly -1.06%. Similar calculations for the Player and Tie wagers yield expectations of -1.24% and -14.36%, respectively.

If the 5% commission is eliminated and, instead, the Bank is “barred” from winning on a Bank total of 7, the expected outcome for the Bank Wager becomes SUM (Bank wager if Bank is barred from winning on a total of 7) = (0.4585974 – p)(+1) + 0.4462466(-1) + (0.0951560 + p)(0), where 7 represents the barred Bank total and p the contribution to the overall Bank winning percentage for 7 (i.e., p = Prob. {Bank total = 7 and Bank wins}).

Barring the winning 3-card totals of 7: 1.018% house edge 4.914%, which is, and this is important for the acceptance of the game, a fraction less than the 5% commission. The odds of this happening are 43.4 to 1. The odds stated in connection with the above specific barred situation represent the odds of the bank obtaining the given total and this total exceeding that of the Player. For example, on any given hand, the odds against the Bank obtaining a 3-card total of seven and winning are 43.4 to 1.

Meaning, in simple words, that in average a Dragon shows up every 43 Hands.  And that's exactly what we need for the system to overcome the edge.  And the system document proves it well.

Well, thank you all for your very interesting and challenging questions.  I hope we are all now convinced that this system is as near as possible to the Holy Grail we're all waiting for.

The system goes for a $1100 as it's totally worth it.  At $10 a bet, it will pay itself off in 10 hours of play.  At $100 a bet, you need one hour to have it pay for itself.

Click here to order. 

Wishing you all the best!
Izak

www.letstalkwinning.com

Email: webmaster@letstalkwinning.com or izak.matatya@videotron.ca

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